Futures Cone Workshop

The futures cone is a useful foresight tool that could lend itself nicely to co-creative workshops. However, its original visual representations do not fit this type of usage. So we created this alternative version of the futures cone, to enable you to facilitate these types of workshops.

When to use the Futures cone workshop template?

Planning the next quarter or next year is great – but sometimes you have to look beyond that. The futures cone (aka cone of plausibility or cone of possibility) demonstrates that the future is not linear. Accordingly, the future cannot be illustrated with a simple right-pointing arrow, as is often done. Instead, there is a host of ever-expanding possible scenarios as we head further and further into the future. The tool was created iteratively by Charles Taylor (1990r, by Hancock and Bezold (1994d, and in the by Joseph Voros (2000s).

The canvas could be used on your own, but it really shines when used in a collaborative workshop setting.

Who should use this template?

It is as useful for startups to imagine how they will disrupt the ecosystem they operate it, as it is for large organizations to avoid being disrupted, or for teams within companies to make sure they can strive and remain relevant.

How to use the Futures Cone template?

The three main sections are Prepare, Imagine and Take action, each consisting of 2 steps

Phase 1 – Prepare

Future scenarios should build on signals and drivers of your specific topic. So we added an initial step, which asks workshop participants to list signals and drivers in an individual and a group exercise respectively. The template includes a description and examples of signals and drivers. This is a sort of braindump, which acts as a wram-up, and helps focus on the topic, important trends, and innovative evidence, without needing too much creativity.

Pro tip: people might have a hard time distinguishing between signals and drivers. Don’t worry. Allow a free flow of individual ideas in the first step. And in the second step’s group discussion identify together which of these are more surface level (signals) and which are more systemic (drivers).

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Phase 2 – Imagine

This is the main part. In the first step, equipped with the knowledge of your topic’s signals and drivers, your group now heads into imagining future scenarios that are probable, plausible, or possible (indicating decreasing likelihood). These scenarios should be laid out on the cone signaling likelihood and timescale.

In the second step everyone selects their top preferred and undesired scenarios, and a top 5 is picked for each category.

Pro tip: We added complete darkness around the cone, where ‘preposterous’ scenarios could be added. These are scenarios that some people believe possible, but others migh need convincing to believe (e.g. worldwide shut-down due to a pandemic…?).

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Phase 3 – Take action

Imagining future scenarios is useless if left without action. So you will now assign next steps to your top preferred and undesired scenarios. What should be done today, to achieve or avoid these scenarios, respectively?

Pro tip: first define next steps as a group. One is enough, three are plenty. Only then pick an owner. While people may be reluctant to own something without actions defined, they may get inspired to own it during the group discussions.

Check out our thoughts on why we believe this template was needed.